It’s a crowd in Tamil Nadu, but far from madding for ADMK, DMK

There’s the AIADMK alliance, together with Vanniyar-based PMK and BJP. And the DMK-led group, together with the CPM, CPI, the Dalit get together VCK, IUML, one other Muslim get together MMK, and Vaiko’s MDMK.

This Tamil Nadu election differs from current state polls not only for the absence of each J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi. Within the fray is an alphabet soup of events flowing seamlessly from one alliance to a different one.

There’s the AIADMK alliance, together with Vanniyar-based PMK and BJP. And the DMK-led group, together with the CPM, CPI, the Dalit get together VCK, IUML, one other Muslim get together MMK, and Vaiko’s MDMK.

Then there’s T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK, which determined to contest alone after the AIADMK thwarted BJP efforts to get it on their facet. The AMMK has with it the AIMIM and now Captain Vijayakanth’s DMDK.

There’s the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) of Kamal Haasan, who prevailed whereas Rajinikanth once more promised solely to deceive. The MNM has two allies, All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK) led by Sarath Kumar, backed by Hindu Nadars in southern Tamil Nadu, and India Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), based by conglomerate Pachamuthu.

There are small-time however essential veterans: Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (with followers among the many downtrodden sections) and Ok Krishnaswamy’s Puthiya Tamilagam (backed by the SC neighborhood).

Come ballot day although, it could be just about an AIADMK vs DMK battle, with leaders throughout the political spectrum saying the 2 events will collectively mop up 80% of the votes. Reminiscent of the DMK and AIADMK’s worst performances, post-Rajiv Gandhi assassination in 1991 and after Jayalalithaa’s corruption-tainted time period in 1996, respectively, a minister says, “The 2 have all the time had minimal 20-22% votes. The perimeter events can’t hope for greater than 15% votes.”

AIADMK CM Edappadi Ok Palaniswami (EPS) has indicated it gained’t be a cakewalk for the DMK, as polls have predicted, by the dimensions of his Trichy rally on March 7 — one of many largest up to now. EPS’ speeches, aside from his authorities’ sops, are additionally drawing extra traction than the staid oratory of DMK’s M Ok Stalin.

In non-public, leaders of smaller fronts additionally calculate their best-case votes at 7%-8%. If the AMMK hopes to the touch that determines, so does MNM; Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi is aiming for above 5%.

A DMK veteran says that at this level, they’re taking a look at 170-200 seats out of 234. Nonetheless, one in all his AIADMK counterparts says that even at his get-together’s worst, the DMK gained’t get greater than 150. As per this ruling get-together chief, the primary disadvantage for the AIADMK proper now’s that not more than 30 candidates appear sure-shot winners. “Palaniswami will win however he must combat tooth and nail to retain his CM seat,” he says.

AIADMK sources insist that its alliance with the BJP is just not hurting the get-together. Nonetheless, the BJP tally might not contact double digits.

One of many seats the get-together expects to win is Coimbatore South. Its standard candidate Vanathi Srinivasan might prevail over Kamal Haasan — MNM sources admit his likelihood is “slim”.

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